The 2012 fantasy football season was the season of the comeback. Peyton Manning, against my own suspicions, made a great run for many fantasy football teams. Adrian Peterson defied every fantasy expert who said to pass on him in your fantasy football draft. Most of all I myself made somewhat of a comeback wining a fantasy football championship after having a sour 2011 season and erasing a loss to a team that had Tim Tebow as a quarterback.
However I am not here to brag but rather share what I have learned with those who are still loyal readers to this blog as well as those who are not. As I wrap up my 2012 fantasy football season and begin planning my 2013 fantasy football season I found something that I thought was true is actually false.
Runningbacks are as overrated in fantasy football as they are in the NFL. I used to deny that idea as the core of my fantasy football philosophy but I have found that the runningback are simply to prone to injury and receive less carries than ever.
One reason runningbacks are so overvalued is that they are only worth a first round pick if they are receiving “bell cow” carries. Only five running backs received over 300 carries last season; including Arian Foster HOU (351 att), Adrian Peterson MIN (348 att), Alfred Morris WAS (335), Doug Martin TB (319 att), and Marshawn Lynch (315). All five had double digit touchdowns and all five also had over 1200 yards on the ground.
However one stat that jumps out at me is the pass to run ratio and Tampa Bay was the only pass heavy team of these five choosing to pass 61% of the time. As much as Adrian Peterson was pounding the rock the Vikings elected to pass 56% of the time however in close games the pass average drops dramatically down to 46%. Houston Texans chose to pass 54% of the play calls followed by Washington who passed 53% of their play calls. Seattle led the most balanced attack in the league opting to pass only 51% of the time.
Now while there were players who had double digit touchdowns in the NFL without the three hundred carry prerequisite but you can count them on one hand. Stevan Ridley NE (290 att), rookie Trent Richardson KC (267 att), and Michael Turner ATL (223 att) all had double digit touchdowns with less than 300 carries. After these three nobody had double digit rushing touchdowns. However Ray Rice (257 att) did have nine touchdowns and one receiving touchdown but that leaves only nine runningbacks that were first round worthy.
While runningbacks thinned nine receivers can match those double digit touchdowns and the receiver position has greater depth at scoring. Tightends slightly receded in value compared to the 2011 season however some fifth round tightends had better value than some first round runningbacks including 2011 star LeSean McCoy. McCoy, Maurice Jones Drew, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Mc Fadden prove for certain runningbacks are not what they once were compared to years past. The position is erratic, almost doomed to injury, and have little reward for the risk.
As I left you all in October I had to take a hiatus from blogging about fantasy football and focus on my own career. I also had family obligations and this left little time to prepare for a valuable accreditation that had me studying instead of blogging. While I am grateful to all of you who have followed my blog in the past I hope that you will return in following my opinions on the NFL and the world of fantasy football. This blog will now strictly be my blog post, my podcast, and the occasional video post. All links will now be posted on the Informers facebook page instead of here.