Did Runningback Become Overvalued in the 2012 Fantasy Football Season?

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The 2012 fantasy football season was the season of the comeback. Peyton Manning, against my own suspicions, made a great run for many fantasy football teams. Adrian Peterson defied every fantasy expert who said to pass on him in your fantasy football draft. Most of all I myself made somewhat of a comeback wining a fantasy football championship after having a sour 2011 season and erasing a loss to a team that had Tim Tebow as a quarterback.

However I am not here to brag but rather share what I have learned with those who are still loyal readers to this blog as well as those who are not. As I wrap up my 2012 fantasy football season and begin planning my 2013 fantasy football season I found something that I thought was true is actually false.

Runningbacks are as overrated in fantasy football as they are in the NFL. I used to deny that idea as the core of my fantasy football philosophy but I have found that the runningback are simply to prone to injury and receive less carries than ever.

One reason runningbacks are so overvalued is that they are only worth a first round pick if they are receiving “bell cow” carries. Only five running backs received over 300 carries last season; including Arian Foster HOU (351 att), Adrian Peterson MIN (348 att), Alfred Morris WAS (335), Doug Martin TB (319 att), and Marshawn Lynch (315). All five had double digit touchdowns and all five also had over 1200 yards on the ground.

However one stat that jumps out at me is the pass to run ratio and Tampa Bay was the only pass heavy team of these five choosing to pass 61% of the time. As much as Adrian Peterson was pounding the rock the Vikings elected to pass 56% of the time however in close games the pass average drops dramatically down to 46%. Houston Texans chose to pass 54% of the play calls followed by Washington who passed 53% of their play calls. Seattle led the most balanced attack in the league opting to pass only 51% of the time.

Now while there were players who had double digit touchdowns in the NFL without the three hundred carry prerequisite but you can count them on one hand. Stevan Ridley NE (290 att), rookie Trent Richardson KC (267 att), and Michael Turner ATL (223 att) all had double digit touchdowns with less than 300 carries. After these three nobody had double digit rushing touchdowns. However Ray Rice (257 att) did have nine touchdowns and one receiving touchdown but that leaves only nine runningbacks that were first round worthy.

While runningbacks thinned nine receivers can match those double digit touchdowns and the receiver position has greater depth at scoring. Tightends slightly receded in value compared to the 2011 season however some fifth round tightends had better value than some first round runningbacks including 2011 star LeSean McCoy. McCoy, Maurice Jones Drew, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Mc Fadden prove for certain runningbacks are not what they once were compared to years past. The position is erratic, almost doomed to injury, and have little reward for the risk.

As I left you all in October I had to take a hiatus from blogging about fantasy football and focus on my own career. I also had family obligations and this left little time to prepare for a valuable accreditation that had me studying instead of blogging. While I am grateful to all of you who have followed my blog in the past I hope that you will return in following my opinions on the NFL and the world of fantasy football. This blog will now strictly be my blog post, my podcast, and the occasional video post. All links will now be posted on the Informers facebook page instead of here.

ESPN Fantasy Football Now

Michele Steele, Christopher Harris and Stephania Bell take a look at key issues heading into Sunday, including Adrian Peterson..

Dallas RB Demarco Murray is he an elite RB?

CBSsports.com Demarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, Roy Hellu, Peyton Hillis, David Wilson, and Jacquizz Rodgers when should you draft them? Dave Richard explains that you shouldn’t let them slip away or reach to early passing on a better pick? Be careful all are in very different tiers according to Dave Richard.

Also listen to the latest CBS Fantasy Football Podcast here!

Click the arrow to play…

Woops sorry wrong podcast!

Is he CRYING!

DavidGonos.com looks at the current DUI arrest of SEA RB Marshawn Lynch and how his fantasy football value is in jeopardy.

This is Lynch’s third arrest after pleading guilty for a hit and run and misdemeanor gun charge which means Goodell’s going to have no mercy with him. Not to mention his new contract is in serious jeopardy due to his behavior and substance abuse.

Say goodbye to that $17 millioin guaranteed Marshawn! 

It was just a matter of time before Marshawn Lynch was going to do something stupid again and it is obvious that the Seahawks bet on it. Why else would that put language in the conrtract that clearly voided guaranteed monies for Lynch.

That is also one reason why he ranks as low as 24th overall on The Infomers 2012 RB Cheat Sheet because I also have no faith in Lynch.

I bet after Lynch signed that contract the The Steve Miller Band began playing in his head.

Lynch is a selfish player who showed no heart in Buffalo leading to him being benched in 2010. After he was traded to Seattle he showed no effort until middle of last season when he suddenly realized it was a contract year.

Avoid Lynch in this years Fantasy Football Draft he will only lead your team to last place. Most of all, their is a reason why when you search Marshawn Lynch on Google (tap the space bar after his name) that the word arrested appears under his name.

Click the Grey Arrow to Listen

Great but short conversation especially on runningbacks Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Jamaal Charles.

Can AP come back and be productive?

(Source: fantasynews.cbssports.com)

Please click the arrow directly above CBSsports.com to listen to the audio.

CBSsports.com Two leaders in the fantasy football industry Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg sit down and talk fantasy football every Wednesday at CBSsports.

This week they speak with former NFL player agent Joel Corry on his insight on big contracts and the effects on player performance.  

Also check out Jame Eisenberg’s column on 15 players he is targeting on draft day.  

Former NFL agent Joel Corry says money may make Lynch less motivated to perform.

The Pig Skin Guy With mock drafts popping up all over the place I have learned that the value of the majority of fantasy football players will not increase of decrease unless a position is opened or lost due to injury.

With that said it is time to see whose stock is on the rise and possibly just as overvalued as shares of facebook.

Is Marshawn Lynch overvalued or is he going to produce like late last season?

Vikings vs Seahawks

NFL Pre-Season Week 2 Minnesota vs Seattle 

COLD: Seattle RB Marshwn Lynch is a complete and utter bust of a player! Yes he had two receptions for 12 yards total but he is not a receiver!  

He is simply not even worthy of entertaining the idea of a fantasy draft pick. I have never seen a greater waste of talent then Lynch who at this point needs to be cut from the Seahawks.  Do not draft Lynch until he makes plays in the ground game!

HOT: MIN QB Donovan McNabb.  Yes I hear you yelling through your monitor at me and I understand why but first let me explain.

McNabb had solid protection, his receivers were in sync, and he was able to sustain a long drive.  He looked like a pocket passer rather then the old days of making plays with his feet when the pocket would collapse.  Thus McNabb deserves to move up in the rankings but only by a few points.

SLEEPER: Seattle RB Leon Washington made the most of his carries going 4 attempts for 26 yards.  With Lynch not moving the sticks look for Washington to receive more carries.  But he is a fourth RB option at best.

Click the link for the stats by ESPN.  Video by NFL.com.

NFL Pre-Season Week 1 SD vs SEA

Fantasy Analysis: 

San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed a bomb to Vincent Jackson for 47 yards and made it clear their was a lot of fantasy potential between the two.

While Seattles QB Tavaris Jackson struggled to find open receivers.

Also yesterday I asked is Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch fantasy gold and it was clear yesterdy he is not!  Lynch had 3 attempts for only 8 yards clearly not getting a lot of playing time.  Lynch’s involvement is a serious concern to his fantasy potential.

See link for game stats at NFL.com.

Vincent Jackson proved their was no drag form him during the NFL lockout.

SI.com Thomas Casale explains why some players fantasy value is going up while others are going down.  The first player on the list Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch is talented but is he committed?