Before NFL Free Agency began Tuesday it was more than likely you knew the value of players such as Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, and Danny Amendola. However all these players now in new cities, with new offensive minds, and new quarterbacks, and nothing is the same. How can we come to a simple solution to solve the equation of what is their fantasy football value? The answer is if you if you had that solution you would dominate every fantasy football league.
So let’s apply what we know about these players and the new offense they will be in, the talent that will surround them, and how they will fit in their new scheme. While there’s no absolute correct answer to this question we can gather what we know and come to reasonable answer.
Anquan Boldin was a scoring juggernaut in Arizona but never reached over 1000yrds in Baltimore? What happened?
The truth is Boldin was never as good a receiver as Larry Fitzgerald who would often draw double coverage due to his speed and huge catching radius. That is why Arizona parted with Boldin who signed with the Baltimore Ravens in 2010 and also why the Ravens parted with Boldin in 2013. Boldin doesn’t have one word, consistency. Boldin goes from eight catches one week to two catches the next the results make fantasy football fanatics insane because you don’t know when to start him.
While Boldin’s post season performance was impressive but consider this question; whose better last season statistically Anquan Boldin or Cecil Shorts of the Jaguars? That’s right Shorts was statistically better but that doesn’t make Shorts the better overall talent. Boldin is a very talented receiver still who has the skill set to dominate most corner-backs in the NFL but I don’t expect him to be a better fantasy player.
Boldin is ranked as a low end third receiver according to CBSsports which I will not debate. As for draft day anything more than a seventh round pick is a reach. Boldin’s best value in my opinion is 8th round in twelve team leagues.
Wes Welker will not have a hard time adjusting to a new system in Denver no matter what the fantasy football experts think. Peyton is smart enough to know how to use Welker and that will be no different than how Tom Brady used him in New England.
Welker is the ultimate slot receiver able to catch balls on underneath patterns in the flats or bust the safeties with a skinny post for long yardage. The Manning Moore offensive system is not very different than the New England’s Erhardt Perkins system. While the verbiage is different the formations are similar and the routes run by receivers are identical.
My expectations are that Welker will become the second option rather than the third in Manning’s offense. While everyone seems to believe Manning had a great season last year the one person who may not believe that is Peyton Manning. Denver struggled to convert third downs last season (96/213) but that is where Welker comes in. Welker will now be the go to receiver in Manning’s offense.
CBSsports has Welker projected to be a high end two receiver and I think that is a fair grade for a veteran receiver that still has plenty of gas in the tank. Consider taking Welker as early as the fourth round if you are looking to build around the receiver position.
Ever since Danny Amendola’s college career he has been asked to fill the shoes left by another undrafted receiver named Wes Welker. Both Welker and Amendola are Texas Tech alumnus; Welker 2000-2003 and Amendola 2004-2007 however both are not the same guy and never have been.
Amendola has often been compared to Welker for some very obvious reasons including speed, stature, and that they both play the slot. Besides these obvious observations this is often an unfair comparison.
Amendola is not able to get into space as well as Welker can and remember Welker was primarily lined up in the halfback at Texas Tech. Amendola doesn’t have the ability to break off defenders and is often brought down on the first hit.
Amendola has an injury history that makes him a serious draft risk dislocating his elbow in the 2011 season then dislocating his clavicle in 2012.
CBSsports was generous ranking Amendola a 7th or 8th round low third option receiver but I see Amendola’s value no greater than a fourth receiver maybe the tenth round in twelve team leagues.
Just because you play with the Patriots doesn’t mean you’re going to instantly be a huge fantasy producer. Amendola is simply not Wes Welker and the bigger question is how will the loss of Wes Welker affect Tom Brady’s fantasy production?