Before NFL Free Agency began Tuesday it was more than likely you knew the value of players such as Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, and Danny Amendola. However all these players now in new cities, with new offensive minds, and new quarterbacks, and nothing is the same. How can we come to a simple solution to solve the equation of what is their fantasy football value? The answer is if you if you had that solution you would dominate every fantasy football league.

So let’s apply what we know about these players and the new offense they will be in, the talent that will surround them, and how they will fit in their new scheme. While there’s no absolute correct answer to this question we can gather what we know and come to reasonable answer.

Anquan Boldin was a scoring juggernaut in Arizona but never reached over 1000yrds in Baltimore? What happened?

The truth is Boldin was never as good a receiver as Larry Fitzgerald who would often draw double coverage due to his speed and huge catching radius. That is why Arizona parted with Boldin who signed with the Baltimore Ravens in 2010 and also why the Ravens parted with Boldin in 2013. Boldin doesn’t have one word, consistency. Boldin goes from eight catches one week to two catches the next the results make fantasy football fanatics insane because you don’t know when to start him.

While Boldin’s post season performance was impressive but consider this question; whose better last season statistically Anquan Boldin or Cecil Shorts of the Jaguars? That’s right Shorts was statistically better but that doesn’t make Shorts the better overall talent. Boldin is a very talented receiver still who has the skill set to dominate most corner-backs in the NFL but I don’t expect him to be a better fantasy player.

Boldin is ranked as a low end third receiver according to CBSsports which I will not debate. As for draft day anything more than a seventh round pick is a reach. Boldin’s best value in my opinion is 8^th round in twelve team leagues.

Wes Welker will not have a hard time adjusting to a new system in Denver no matter what the fantasy football experts think. Peyton is smart enough to know how to use Welker and that will be no different than how Tom Brady used him in New England.

Welker is the ultimate slot receiver able to catch balls on underneath patterns in the flats or bust the safeties with a skinny post for long yardage. The Manning Moore offensive system is not very different than the New England’s Erhardt Perkins system. While the verbiage is different the formations are similar and the routes run by receivers are identical.

My expectations are that Welker will become the second option rather than the third in Manning’s offense. While everyone seems to believe Manning had a great season last year the one person who may not believe that is Peyton Manning. Denver struggled to convert third downs last season (96/213) but that is where Welker comes in. Welker will now be the go to receiver in Manning’s offense.

CBSsports has Welker projected to be a high end two receiver and I think that is a fair grade for a veteran receiver that still has plenty of gas in the tank. Consider taking Welker as early as the fourth round if you are looking to build around the receiver position.

Ever since Danny Amendola’s college career he has been asked to fill the shoes left by another undrafted receiver named Wes Welker. Both Welker and Amendola are Texas Tech alumnus; Welker 2000-2003 and Amendola 2004-2007 however both are not the same guy and never have been.

Amendola has often been compared to Welker for some very obvious reasons including speed, stature, and that they both play the slot. Besides these obvious observations this is often an unfair comparison.

Amendola is not able to get into space as well as Welker can and remember Welker was primarily lined up in the halfback at Texas Tech. Amendola doesn’t have the ability to break off defenders and is often brought down on the first hit.

Amendola has an injury history that makes him a serious draft risk dislocating his elbow in the 2011 season then dislocating his clavicle in 2012.

CBSsports was generous ranking Amendola a 7^th or 8^th round low third option receiver but I see Amendola’s value no greater than a fourth receiver maybe the tenth round in twelve team leagues.

Just because you play with the Patriots doesn’t mean you’re going to instantly be a huge fantasy producer. Amendola is simply not Wes Welker and the bigger question is how will the loss of Wes Welker affect Tom Brady’s fantasy production?

Mike Wallace is a rich man this morning after agreeing to a five year deal $65 million dollars and $30 million guaranteed with the Miami Dolphins. However does that mean you should be as eager as the Dolphins to spend a high draft pick and big bucks in auction drafts come fantasy football draft day?

The Answer is YES!

Wallace is in his prime and has a proven history of being a big play receiver that can stretch the field. In the Miami Dolphins west coast offense Wallace is a perfect fit and the combination of Hartline and Bess will only improve his big play potential.

Now there are plenty of fantasy experts who will say that Wallace is going to become a bust just because they are looking at Wallace’s previous seasons stats.

However the Pittsburgh Steelers were never committed to signing Wallace to a long term deal and Pittsburgh OC Todd Hailey was an awful choice to replace Bruce Arians. Hailey had big plans to reignite the running game in Pittsburg instead of concentrating his efforts to continue the passing attack that was dominant in the AFC North division.

Hailey never realized (as he often dose) what he had in Wallace; a player that is able to draw double coverage and still go up and win fights for balls. Wallace has a huge catch radius, a quick step off the line of scrimmage which avoids the jam, and his vertical leap rivals any high jumper.

Miami Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin is in his second year and did an amazing job last season in Miami. Philbin had limited options at receiver while grooming young rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins ranked 23^rd is passing according to FootballOutsiders.com and considering this was an entirely new staff, system, and personnel that is not bad.

While CBSsports.com fantasy football has Wallace ranked as a “low end number two” receiver I strongly disagree with this evaluation. Wallace is a high end number one receiver now and can be picked up in the fourth round without any regret. Ranking Wallace a low end number two receiver is insulting and proves the fantasy experts are out of touch with football reality and instead knee deep in numbers.

The NFC West was already a difficult division to play in now the Seattle Seahawks have made it even more difficult acquiring wide receiver Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings.

Now you may ask how the pistol is going to increase the fantasy value of Percy Harvin or even better will it increase his value? Well first let’s look at Harvin’s career with the Minnesota Vikings and how the new offense will compliment his talents.

Percy Harvin is without a doubt one of the most injury prone players in the NFL. He simply can’t stay healthy. So the buyer beware tag is will not going to be dropped just because Harvin has been traded. However don’t let Harvin’s injury history keep you from taking an explosive endzone threat.

Harvin is reunited with his former offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell who is now taking the play calling duties in Seattle. In the 2009 NFL season Harvin averaged 13.2 yards a reception and in 2010 Harvin averaged 12.2 yards a reception with Bevel at offensive coordinator running a west coast offense. Quarterback Brett Favre would use Harvin as a third option but knew the receiver could get into space after the catch. That is what makes Harvin such a scoring threat. Harvin is as versatile as a receiver can be. Harvin can lineup as a slot receiver, a halfback, and he can be a return man on special teams. Harvin has many intangibles that other receivers don’t posses. However that is also a curse as Harvin began to see more play calls as a halfback and kick return specialist putting him at greater risk for injury. Now while the Seahawks have no intention to rest Harvin they will be able to increase his production in all those roles.

The Seahawks lacked a go to receiver for QB Russell Wilson last season and Harvin could significantly fill that role. Harvin can also be used in the wishbone formation as an option back along with halfback Marshawn Lynch. Harvin could be used in multiple formations and offensive schemes; not just as your typical slot receiver. Often we think of the pistol offense as a running scheme when it is actually an option scheme. The read option is all about choices made at the line of scrimmage, reading the defense for coverage gaps, making an adjustment on the play call, and then exploiting the defensive gap. When it comes to the pistol Harvin is a perfect fit as he is the ultimate utility player.

Harvin’s value fantasy was a mid fourth rounder overall last season according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Now while that sounds like a reach in all honesty he was alone in the passing game in Minnesota but was often injured. I project his value to hold to not change significantly from last season even though most will look at his stats and typically downgrade him.

by Cris Benson

While I don’t often care to speculate on the fantasy value of most fantasy football players in March I can’t help but wonder? Is Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense going to enhance the fantasy draft stock of the Chiefs? Do the Chiefs have the potential to be an explosive offense? Can Alex Smith put the Chiefs receivers back on the fantasy football radar? Will Jamaal Charles remain a bell cow running back in Reid’s west coast system? Will Dwayne Bowe put up numbers that rival top tier wide receivers? Will fantasy stars emerge such as Dexter McCluster? 

The Kansas City Chiefs finished last in points scored after a somber 2012 NFL season which sparked some major changes by the Hunt family. The Chiefs have a new front office with General Manager John Dorsey and a new Head Coach Andy Reid.

While Reid is clearly going to have the biggest impact on the Chiefs it was Dorsey who used the franchise tag on left tackle Branden Albert and also signed fantasy standout wide-receiver Dwayne Bowe. Figure in quarterback Alex Smith who was traded to Kansas City from the San Francisco 49ers and with those two moves the Chiefs are now in a position to have an impact draft pick as well.

Reid has always commanded offenses that are patterned after several different west coast molds and they are always high scoring. High scoring offenses produce high scoring fantasy football players but the problem is predicting which offenses will be doing the scoring.

Last season I kept insisting that my readers follow what was happening in Atlanta as the Falcons appeared to be on the cusp of a potential high scoring offense. After acquiring offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter the Falcons led one of the most explosive air assaults in the NFL making quarterback Matt Ryan a must have on fantasy draft day.

Could Reid’s coaching and Alex Smith’s limited mistakes start something big brewing the NFL? Maybe but nothing comes close to certain until NFL free agency is complete and the draft is in the rear view mirror. By the time spring OTA’s are done I should have a better idea.

After reading NFL analyst and historian Chris Brown’s recent column on the trade for Alex Smith I find myself not eager to declare the Chiefs receivers or Smith fantasy draft locks. On the other hand Jamaal Charles should be a lock yet will Reid abandon the run for a heavy passing attack? Brown conveys some serious questions that will require fantasy enthusiast to add the Chiefs to your Google news wire.

One thing is for certain, Reid knows how to identify talent and also develop talent. Look no further than Michael Vick who under Reid showed an overall improvement statistically from his days in Atlanta.

Vick was prone to poor decision making on and off the field in Atlanta and was also known for his poor work ethic as well. However Reid was able to develop his playmaking talent as well as teach Vick to rely on his arm rather than his legs. Vick became more of a pocket passer under Reid rather than an escape artist that couldn’t read a cover two from an all out blitz package.

If you’re worried about Jamaal Charles, don’t! “I think you can probably put him in any offense and he’s going to do a heck of a job.” Reid said to KCchiefs.com; “He’s a very good running back and there are probably a lot of coaches in this league that would like to have him. He’s a heck of a player. I’m not going to change that. I’m going to give him an opportunity to do his thing and do what he does best.”

It’s very reassuring to know that Charles will most likely be the anchor of Reid’s offense similar to the role Reid had for runningback LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia in the NFL 2011 season.

The complex question is will Smith be spreading the ball around like he did in San Francisco and will he be able to stretch the field to WR Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has the talent unlike Crabtree in SF to separate from coverage (look no further then the last play of the Super Bowl) and tends to draw lots of double coverage due to his sheer size and catching radius. Crabtree is a speedy receiver who out runs his coverage but seldom has the ability to go up and challenge for a ball.

One thing I am almost certain about is Bowe’s value will most likely be inflated by your August draft day and fellow receiver Dexter McCluster will be undervalued. McCluster is going to be a very important piece to the west coast offense and is certain to receive more receptions. I think McCluster has the better chance of the two receivers to be a bigger end zone threat between the twenties as his speed and talent for getting into space is amazing.

While there are many questions I cannot answer right now I will say that the Chiefs should be on your fantasy football radar in 2013. However determining the fantasy draft value of Smith, Bowe, and Charles right now is neither accurate nor necessary. Instead simply keep a close eye on the Chiefs in free agency as they now have a right tackle to replace as well as several other moves that Reid is going to formulate. After the 2013 NFL Draft it will be much easier to predict the Chiefs fantasy football value. Until then simply tweet my post and post your opinion on why Reid will or will not be able to add some more fantasy value to the Chiefs roster in 2013. 

The 2012 fantasy football season was the season of the comeback. Peyton Manning, against my own suspicions, made a great run for many fantasy football teams. Adrian Peterson defied every fantasy expert who said to pass on him in your fantasy football draft. Most of all I myself made somewhat of a comeback wining a fantasy football championship after having a sour 2011 season and erasing a loss to a team that had Tim Tebow as a quarterback.

However I am not here to brag but rather share what I have learned with those who are still loyal readers to this blog as well as those who are not. As I wrap up my 2012 fantasy football season and begin planning my 2013 fantasy football season I found something that I thought was true is actually false.

Runningbacks are as overrated in fantasy football as they are in the NFL. I used to deny that idea as the core of my fantasy football philosophy but I have found that the runningback are simply to prone to injury and receive less carries than ever.

One reason runningbacks are so overvalued is that they are only worth a first round pick if they are receiving “bell cow” carries. Only five running backs received over 300 carries last season; including Arian Foster HOU (351 att), Adrian Peterson MIN (348 att), Alfred Morris WAS (335), Doug Martin TB (319 att), and Marshawn Lynch (315). All five had double digit touchdowns and all five also had over 1200 yards on the ground.

However one stat that jumps out at me is the pass to run ratio and Tampa Bay was the only pass heavy team of these five choosing to pass 61% of the time. As much as Adrian Peterson was pounding the rock the Vikings elected to pass 56% of the time however in close games the pass average drops dramatically down to 46%. Houston Texans chose to pass 54% of the play calls followed by Washington who passed 53% of their play calls. Seattle led the most balanced attack in the league opting to pass only 51% of the time.

Now while there were players who had double digit touchdowns in the NFL without the three hundred carry prerequisite but you can count them on one hand. Stevan Ridley NE (290 att), rookie Trent Richardson KC (267 att), and Michael Turner ATL (223 att) all had double digit touchdowns with less than 300 carries. After these three nobody had double digit rushing touchdowns. However Ray Rice (257 att) did have nine touchdowns and one receiving touchdown but that leaves only nine runningbacks that were first round worthy.

While runningbacks thinned nine receivers can match those double digit touchdowns and the receiver position has greater depth at scoring. Tightends slightly receded in value compared to the 2011 season however some fifth round tightends had better value than some first round runningbacks including 2011 star LeSean McCoy. McCoy, Maurice Jones Drew, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Mc Fadden prove for certain runningbacks are not what they once were compared to years past. The position is erratic, almost doomed to injury, and have little reward for the risk.

As I left you all in October I had to take a hiatus from blogging about fantasy football and focus on my own career. I also had family obligations and this left little time to prepare for a valuable accreditation that had me studying instead of blogging. While I am grateful to all of you who have followed my blog in the past I hope that you will return in following my opinions on the NFL and the world of fantasy football. This blog will now strictly be my blog post, my podcast, and the occasional video post. All links will now be posted on the Informers facebook page instead of here.

When I last posted my fantasy football advice column I went on a bit of a rant. While it was out of sheer frustration with a few imbeciles who read, write, and broadcast fantasy football I was only trying to prove one simple point.

DON’T BLAME ME because I don’t get paid for this.

Over the Bears bye week I started comparing my record to others who are so called experts (who by the way are paid, some very well) and found they were no better at choosing starters then I was.

So what makes them the expert?

The real fantasy football experts are the stats guys who are knee deep into numbers however I have said time and time again that fantasy football is about watching games not numbers. Numbers don’t recognize coaching changes, game plan, and coincidence. Most of all numbers are not very fun to watch.

I consider myself a football fan first and a fantasy football geek second. I love high school, college, and most of all NFL football. I didn’t pay all that money for NFL Sunday Ticket to just watch my fantasy team I want to watch great NFL games.

In 2007 my fantasy football team was in the gutter but my second son was born and like all of us priorities took over.

Also the Chicago Bears went to the 2007 Super Bowl making my fantasy football season a blinker in the rear view mirror. I could care less about my fantasy football season that year as long as the Bears played for an extended amount of time I was going along for the ride.

Yes we all know how that ended and I still have a hard time saying the name Rex… Groooooosmaaaaaaaaaaaaan.

Real football fans put their favorite team over their fantasy football team because there is simply no comparison.

There’s a reason they call it fantasy football and yes you don’t actually own a team. So stop taking it so seriously and don’t be afraid to make a mistake or two. Stop listening to some experts and start doing some of your own homework!

If you don’t want to do the work then don’t blame me for your decisions. All I do is try to point you in the right direction and I will never take the credit if you start a player who has a breakout game.

Why? Because it is not my decision how you manage your fantasy squad.

Now with that said I am cleaning up the Fever with some simple changes.

I will list seven fantasy football players who are HOT and seven who are D.O.A since WARM players were confusing some readers. So WARM players are gone and the confusion will hopefully end.

What can I say I tried something different and failed miserably but hey who cares.

D.O.A

Washington Redskins Quarterback Robert Griffin III vs. The New York Giants Defense

Yes Washington had two victories against the defending Super Bowl champs last season but the Washington receivers are nothing to write home about. The Redskins will have to lean on running-back Alfred Morris today.

New Orleans Saints Running-back Darren Sproles vs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense

Sproles is playing as purely a checkdown receiver but the Bucs have been very good at not letting teams find their second or third option.

New York Jets Running-back Shonn Greene vs. The New England Patriots Defense

From breakout game to complete shutdown!

New England Patriots Running-back Stevan Ridley vs. The New York Jets Defense

The Jets will contain the Patriots running game and see if their front four can put the pressure on the Tom Brady. Rex knows that containing the Patriots running game is a key to victory.

New Orleans Wide-receiver Marques Colston vs. The Tama Bay Buccaneers Defense

Hasn’t been very impressive and faces a Tampa squad that will not give up the big play.

Arizona Cardinals Wide-receiver Larry Fitzgerald vs. The Minnesota Vikings Defense

Yes Larry is in his home town but it is very hard to make a play when your quarterback is on the ground.

Detroit Lions Wide-receiver Calvin Johnson vs. The Chicago Bears Defense

While I am being a homer it is no secret the Chicago Bears will do all they can to keep Johnson in double coverage.

HOT WITH THE FEVER

Oakland Raiders Quarterback Carson Palmer vs. The Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

This matchup could not come at a better time for Palmer who clearly is undervalued.

Washington Running-back Alfred Morris vs. The New York Giants Defense

While the Giants will contain RG3 stopping Morris will be much more difficult.

Dallas Cowboys Running-back Felix Jones vs. The Carolina Panthers Defense

Who ever play the Carolina defense should start and there is no better example than Felix Jones.

Oakland Raiders Running-back Darren McFadden vs. The Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

As Palmer goes so should McFadden!

Patriots Wide-receiver Wes Welker vs. The New England Patriots Defense

Never ceases to amaze me how disrespected Welker is and I am guessing today will be no different.

Dallas Cowboys Wide-receiver Dez Bryant vs. The Carolina Panthers Defense

Look for Dez to rebound and have a huge day! The Panthers are just not matching up with big receivers.

Buffalo Bills Wide-receiver Steve Johnson vs. The Tennessee Titans Defense

Johnson will be leaned on today as the Titans have been very unimpressive against the pass!

Glad to be back and good luck in week seven!

(Source: thefantasyfootballinformer)