By Cris Benson

Have you ever purchased something that was way too expensive but you couldn’t explain it. Except you just knew you had to have it? A car that called your name, the latest piece of tech that will change all of our lives, or a ticket for a game you just had to see. However the car needed a new engine after driving it only ten thousand miles, that piece of life changing tech was phased out after only six months, and that game was a blow out and not the good kind either.

Then it hits you after your credit is maxed and you are left wondering what you were thinking. What made you buy that crappy car, new piece of tech that was old in just six months, and I will never get those two hours of my life back and on top of it I OVER PAYED! Why do we over pay?

Well unfortunately we tend to do the same thing in fantasy football and I have identified four overvalued players that are going as high as the first and second rounds of mock drafts.

These players are suspect at best and you are better off waiting to see if come draft day they drop in value. I am not telling you not to draft these players but instead take a player of better value. If you are going to draft them see if they fall to a later round.

Once again I will be collecting my ADP (Average Draft Position) from Fantasy Football Calculator. If you have read my last post on undervalued starters you might remember this is based on a 12 team draft and a standard scoring system.

TEN RB Chris Johnson (262 Rush Attempts, 1047 Yards Rushing, and 4 Rushing TD’s)

ADP 6^th overall and goes as late as the 11th pick overall and as early as 2^nd pick overall. Stock Watch constant never diverts to much either way.

Johnson has been a reliable fantasy football runningback in his five years as a pro with over 1,187 rushing attempts and 5,645 yards rushing. However last year his production took a measurable dip and left fantasy owners wondering if the work load was taking a toll on his career.

Last season Johnson had only five games where he averaged over four yards a carry.

One reason for why Johnson struggled was his lack of confidence in the offensive line and not being patient for running gaps to be opened.

Another reason was Johnson’s contract holdout making it difficult for him to be acquainted to the new coaching staff and changes in the offensive scheme. But that argument is ridiculous since Titans Head Coach Mike Munchak has been with the Titans since 1994 and was named the offensive line coach in 1997. Munchak has been responsible for run blocking and pass protection since Eddie George was the Titans runningback.

Munchak has history of turning late too middle round offensive line NFL draft picks into first round quality talent. Munchak is a coach’s coach with Hall of Fame credentials as a player and has earned the respect of Titans owner Bud Adams who named Munchak head coach replacing sixteen year head coach Jeff Fisher.

What is obvious is that Chris Johnson took a step back last season not a setback as some “fantasy experts” are claiming. Johnson was lacking the explosiveness he once had to find space after breaking the whole and that is what should concern fantasy owners.

Still need convincing?  One game that stands out in the 2011 season was against the Colts in week eight where Johnson clearly had difficulty against the 31^st ranked defense in the NFL. Johnson struggled with 14 attempts and only 34 yards rushing; however Johnson’s backup Javon Ringer had 14 attempts and 60 yards rushing.

Strategy- While everyone is buying Johnson as the 6^th overall pick in the 2012 fantasy football draft I am not as convinced as others. If Johnson was available in round two I would still not draft him.

This isn’t what I believe as much as what I can prove and the proof in my opinion is the history of runningbacks who are burnt early their careers and take sudden turns for the worse. Also it doesn’t help when the Titans are playing the most difficult schedule against the run in the NFL 2012 season.

Now with that said there is also a history of runningbacks who also bounce back after bad seasons; however a handful have the millage that Johnson has had early in his career.

If you draft him with a first round pick you are passing on a player who has better value then Johnson.

Essentially what I am saying is Johnson is a third round pick that is being sold as a first and nobody seems to be questioning why he had such a drop in performance last season. I have been burned to many times to assume a player will just bounce back.

MIN RB Adrian Peterson (208 Rush Attempts, 970 Yards Rushing, and 12 Rushing TD’s)

ADP 14^th overall and goes as late as the 14^th pick overall and as early as the 6^th pick overall. Stock Watch up and down.

While most would have you believe that Adrian Peterson will start week one I think that is very unrealistic. The Vikings will most likely have to place Peterson on the PUP list if the medical staff does not clear him. Rather than rush him back and have him reinjure his torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus or put him at risk for a career ending injury.

Medical science can only perform so many miracles and luckily the first injury tends to be the easiest to repair. However if a player is reinjured the health risk only become more significant and Peterson is too great an investment for the Vikings.

I personally think Peterson could be as healthy as he was before the injury and since he has made such significant progress.  Peterson’s rehab has been ahead of schedule and there were no complications after his surgery.

However if he is placed on the preseason PUP list which is all but certain Peterson will sit out all training camp but can be moved easily to the 53 man regular season roster it he doesn’t practice. On the other hand if the Vikings are not convinced Peterson is ready to make contact then he will likely remain on the regular season PUP list. That means Peterson will not be able to practice until after week six.

So how effective is he if he sits on your bench for the first half of the season?

I would compare this to how fantasy football owners were burned by taking a gamble on Peyton Manning last season. The difference here is we don’t have a lockout which made it almost impossible to see Manning’s season long sit on the PUP list.

Strategy- Peterson will have value in closing rounds of fantasy football drafts and he will see action in the 2012 season. The problem is you need a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen.  

Worst case scenario is Peterson sits on the regular season PUP list then his overall value is not a 1^st, 2^nd, or even a 10^th round pick. If you want to draft Peterson in the 11^th round by all means I am with you I think he has great value in the late rounds and returns in time for the end of the season as well as the  playoffs.

Best case scenario is he is on the preseason PUP list and is activated at the end of training camp to begin contact drills. The big problem here is contact. If a Peterson is running in circles that is a good sign his knee is strengthening but contact says the knee can sustain a hit and is at normal physical risk.

If Peterson is engaging in contact drills then I see him being a 4^th round pick and should begin play week three or four.

The best plan is to keep a close eye on what the team’s medical staff clears him to do and when. Just keep in mind his value is only as good as the amount of touches he receives and backup Tobey Gerhart showed promise last season.

CIN WR AJ Green (65 Receptions, 1057 Yards Receiving, and 7 TD’s)

ADP 27^th overall and goes as early as the 2^nd round and as late as the 3^rd round. Stock Watch rising.

I know what you’re saying. Green has lots of upside. Green established himself as a rookie with a rookie QB. He had ten catches and 124 yards in just week two against the Denver Broncos in Denver!

Ok I hear you loud and clear but that is no reason for everyone to pass on the Patriots Wes Welker, the Bears Brandon Marshall, and the Falcons Roddy White to take a second year receiver.

Those other players are veterans who besides Marshall out performed Green in the 2011 NFL season. Marshall by the way is playing one of the easiest defensive schedule against receivers. Green and the Bengals on the other hand are playing the most difficult schedule for receivers against receiving defenses.

The Bengals play a very difficult schedule in the second half of the 2012 NFL season especially during the fantasy playoffs. In weeks fourteen through sixteen the Bengals play Dallas’s very improved secondary then go to Philadelphia to play the Eagles who may have the best overall secondary in the NFL and then during the fantasy championship play the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

I honestly think the expectations for Green are way too high against that brutal schedule.

Strategy- Green has huge potential however his stock is more inflated then facebook’s IPO so I  would let others pay to way too much for him. Green’s value is 5^th round overall against a very difficult schedule that will limit his overall production but just look at some other players available who will come as steal compared to Green.

PHI QB Michael Vick (423 Attempts, 253 Completions, Pass% 59.8, Pass Yards 3303, TD Pass 18, RTD 1)

ADP 42^nd Overall and goes as early as 2^nd round and as late as the 6^th round. Stock Watch steady.

Last season a “talented fantasy writer” from Bristol Connecticut who shall remain nameless wrote a draft manifesto that insisted that Michael Vick should be the number one overall pick in fantasy football drafts.

Now I imagine some of you don’t recognize who this writer is and if that is the case then thank your lucky stars you didn’t read that manifesto. However I am sure some of you read this manifesto and thought the same thoughts that crossed my mind.

How is this guy a fantasy football expert? Did he wash Chris Berman’s car or something?

To draft Vick in round six last season was reaching as it still is this season.

You see this writer who shall remain nameless had a theory that if Vick could just stay healthy he would have more attempts to score. Thus if Vick could be a top ten QB while playing just twelve games he would be a lock if he played sixteen.

However here is the problem! Vick has only played one full healthy season. Since his return to the NFL he has played 12 games in 2009, 12 in 2010, and 13 in the 2011 season.

Yet every season the debate is made that Michael Vick is somehow going to turn it on?

I want you to look at one number last season. Literally one number and that is 1 rushing touchdown. If that isn’t the sign of a slowdown out of guy who is known for being a rushing threat I don’t know what is. Vick is entering his tenth full season in the NFL and the toll is beginning to show.

Strategy- Drafting Vick is risky regardless of what round he is available but if he slips to the 8^th round then he is worthy of the risk. Why? You most likely will have selected two runningbacks, two starting receivers, a starting tight end, and two backups and Vick will just be a support a strong core. However your next pick will have to be a quarterback and RG3 or Andrew Luck will probably be available.

If you’re going to take risk at least take it on a younger player who has a higher ceiling.

By Cris Benson

While most of us are watching the NBA Finals, NHL Stanley Cup Finals (congrats Kings fans), and even some MLB a crazy few of us fantasy football junkies are looking for an advantage come August and September for the 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Season.

Right now your fantasy football junkie friends are mock drafting and planning in detail for the upcoming 2012 fantasy football draft.  By the end of this June the Fantasy Football magazines are hitting the shelf and some are already on the shelf now and the junkies already bought one.  Yet all their planning will not give them any advantage.

Why? Because The FF Informer Blog is all about the slackers who don’t have the time to go researching every fantasy football stat, fantasy football article, and news update that will have little or no impact on your fantasy football draft. The word slacker is really not appropriate but let’s just says you have lives and not a lot of time to waste on fantasy football detailed research.  Besides do the junkies really have an advantage?

I think junkies read way too much into all these offseason moves especially mini camps that reveal very little or nothing. So keep enjoying your fantasy baseball, enjoy real sports like the NBA, NHL, and MLB. Rest easy slackers The FF Informer will provide links to articles, twitter news feed that follows all the best NFL insiders and fantasy experts, draft tools, my own articles and updates, videos, podcast, my own short 10 minute fantasy football podcast, and all the free info to help you plan for the upcoming 2012 fantasy football draft.

So now that my sales pitch is over let’s get to what matters and that is the current fantasy football mock drafts that are going on right now.  

The great thing about mock drafts is they reveal what most people think a fantasy players ADP (Average Draft Position) is. Why is that important? Well this gives you insight to who is going to be taken too high in the draft and who will be taken to low in the draft.  Now let’s focus on the fifteen impact players who are undervalued in this year’s fantasy football mock drafts.

I will be taking my information on the ADP from a trusted site called Fantasy Football Calculator and please stop and try their easy and fast fantasy football mock drafts.  The drafts (several hundred already) I am reviewing are the 12 teams and the scoring is standard. The results of every draft are compiled and added to a data base that is a tabulation of information.

First let me begin with a runningback who is clearly undervalued.

ATL RB Michael Turner (301 Rush Attempts, 1340 Yards Rushing, and 11 Rushing TD’s)

ADP 28 overall and goes as late as the 4^th round in some drafts.  Stock Watch up and down.

Michael Turner is done! Yes done! That is exactly what most fantasy football experts claimed last season and then Turner went on to become the third best rusher in the NFL. It appears we are having a repeat of bad advice this year as RB’s Fred Jackson (broken leg), Adrian Peterson (torn ACL and MCL), Jamal Charles (torn ACL), Matt Forte (sprained MCL), who all sustained significant injuries are all being drafted ahead of Turner who is labeled an old man at thirty. That is crazy.

First Turner a nine year veteran who started his career behind NFL legend Ladainian Tomlinson saw no more than 228 carries in those four years in San Diego before joining the Atlanta Falcons.  So why do junkies treat him as if his wheels are going to all the sudden come off?

Last year we saw the injury plague attack young players just as much as older players. We have no reasons for biased when a rusher is receiving over 300 attempts in three years and manages to stay healthy. Turner also plays through injuries such as the groin injury he suffered late last season yet still manage to produce rather than sit.

Strategy- The word is the Falcons want to go to a heavier passing attack which could bring Turners carries down under 300 but if he carries the ball over 200 times I believe his goal line value alone will still be worth more than his current value in mock drafts.

Turner has great return value in the third round but there is no shame in taking him in the 2^nd round.

GB WR Jordy Nelson (68 Receptions, 1263 Yards Receiving, and 15 TD’s)

ADP 38.0 overall and goes between the early 3^rd and 5^th rounds. Stock Watch slipping.

If Michael Turner is too old Jordy Nelson is not recognized as his QB Aaron Rodgers favorite option.  While Greg Jennings was injured last season Nelson stepped in and produced out gaining his teammates and winning over his head coach. 

Nelson has a huge catching radius and with an impressive 18.57 yards after the catch!

However the junkies can’t seem to get passed WR Greg Jennings and TE Jermichael Finley.

McCarthy rewards his players for production with more touches of the football and it is clear Nelson won over McCarthy.

Strategy- Take Nelson as a number one receiver after drafting Aaron Rodgers with your first overall pick in the late 1^st round this will be a scoring duo! The draft will have valuable RB’s in the 2^nd round then snag Nelson in the third while everyone wonders what just happened you will be sailing to the fantasy finals.  If possible you could wait to the 4^th round and grab two great backs but Nelson will be less likely to be available.

PHI WR DeSean Jackson (58 Receptions, 961 Yards Receiving, and 4 TD’s)

ADP 51.8 overall and goes the early 4^th round and early 6^th round. Stock Watch rising.

This is one of those players that we have to take as a casualty of the NFL CBA lockout. Jackson was looking for a long term deal last season which he now has but at a time when the rules changed in the CBA. Jackson allowed that long term deal to become distraction on the field and while Jackson struggled his talent is something we cannot ignore.

Jackson has a talent that is beyond just being a receiver from stretching the field and fighting off double coverage to catching a ball in the flat and making moves like a runningback. Look for Jackson to be the teams go to receiver again.  Whatever you do don’t buy into the suggestion that WR Jeremy Maclin is now the go to receiver on this Eagles team. Maclin is a capable receiver himself but Jackson is a special receiver. Maclin didn’t produce great numbers when needed late last season and is simply not as talented as Jackson.

Strategy- Jackson’s overall value has slipped but not for long especially if the Eagles uses him heavily in the preseason. Look for most to draft Jackson in the 5^th round I just don’t see him being available in the 6^th unless he is dropping passes in the preseason but I seriously doubt that. Taking Jackson in the 4^th round is less risky then fantasy GM’s think. Jackson’s true dilemma is Michael Vick not DeSean Jackson but I believe the Eagles made an investment in Jackon (5 years 51million dollars) instead of letting him walk and the Eagles are seeking a large return.

ATL QB Matt Ryan (Attempts 556, Completions 347, Pass% 61.3, Pass Yards 4177, TD Pass 29, RTD 2)

ADP 78.8 overall and goes as early in the 5^th but as late as the 9^th round. Stock Watch erratic.

Did some people not watch Matt Ryan last year? He was a top eight overall scoring leader in most leagues at QB much less a top 12 in the entire league in scoring.  For some reason though people consider Ryan a second tier QB but the question is why? Is there something I am missing here? Did Ryan not have targets that could catch the ball? Did he not have a running game to back him up?

The questions of why almost always leads us back to the Atlanta Falcons offensive line which gave up 26 sacks making some wonder if Ryan was heading for a serious injury.

Ryan has only expressed his confidence with the offensive line this offseason, “…I like the guys we have up front. They play hard. They play physical.” ProFootballWeekly

Consider this Ryan has outperformed others who are being drafted ahead of him in mock drafts including PHI QB Michael Vick and SD QB Phillip Rivers.  In CBSsports ADP they have HOU QB Matt Schaub ahead of Ryan. The only reasonable argument is taking DEN QB Peyton Manning ahead of Ryan however I don’t agree with that either based on team schedules.

The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest passing schedule overall with an abundance of indoor games in November and December setting Ryan up for a very good season. In addition the coaching staff is committed to passing the ball this season last year the ratio was 58% pass and 42% run it appears that pass ratio could grow to greater than 60% pass in 2012.

Strategy- While some are smart enough to grab Ryan early most are willing to take him later in the draft that leaves you time to grab top tier picks at other positions and lock up a seriously good fantasy QB in the seventh round. While you could take a gamble and wait longer I would say playing the middle ground (between rounds 5-9) is the safest place. Also look to pickup either ATL wide receivers Roddy White or Julio Jones both are being selected in the second too third rounds.  You won’t need both just one for a scoring combo that will double you some points on game day.

While the most drafts are not until late August or early September it never hurts to keep a close eye on those trends in fantasy football. Keep an eye on my blog as I hope to have another podcast up soon and look for more links and articles from The FF Informer blog.