By Cris Benson
Have you ever purchased something that was way too expensive but you couldn’t explain it. Except you just knew you had to have it? A car that called your name, the latest piece of tech that will change all of our lives, or a ticket for a game you just had to see. However the car needed a new engine after driving it only ten thousand miles, that piece of life changing tech was phased out after only six months, and that game was a blow out and not the good kind either.
Then it hits you after your credit is maxed and you are left wondering what you were thinking. What made you buy that crappy car, new piece of tech that was old in just six months, and I will never get those two hours of my life back and on top of it I OVER PAYED! Why do we over pay?
Well unfortunately we tend to do the same thing in fantasy football and I have identified four overvalued players that are going as high as the first and second rounds of mock drafts.
These players are suspect at best and you are better off waiting to see if come draft day they drop in value. I am not telling you not to draft these players but instead take a player of better value. If you are going to draft them see if they fall to a later round.
Once again I will be collecting my ADP (Average Draft Position) from Fantasy Football Calculator. If you have read my last post on undervalued starters you might remember this is based on a 12 team draft and a standard scoring system.
ADP 6th overall and goes as late as the 11th pick overall and as early as 2nd pick overall. Stock Watch constant never diverts to much either way.
Johnson has been a reliable fantasy football runningback in his five years as a pro with over 1,187 rushing attempts and 5,645 yards rushing. However last year his production took a measurable dip and left fantasy owners wondering if the work load was taking a toll on his career.
Last season Johnson had only five games where he averaged over four yards a carry.
One reason for why Johnson struggled was his lack of confidence in the offensive line and not being patient for running gaps to be opened.
Another reason was Johnson’s contract holdout making it difficult for him to be acquainted to the new coaching staff and changes in the offensive scheme. But that argument is ridiculous since Titans Head Coach Mike Munchak has been with the Titans since 1994 and was named the offensive line coach in 1997. Munchak has been responsible for run blocking and pass protection since Eddie George was the Titans runningback.
Munchak has history of turning late too middle round offensive line NFL draft picks into first round quality talent. Munchak is a coach’s coach with Hall of Fame credentials as a player and has earned the respect of Titans owner Bud Adams who named Munchak head coach replacing sixteen year head coach Jeff Fisher.
What is obvious is that Chris Johnson took a step back last season not a setback as some “fantasy experts” are claiming. Johnson was lacking the explosiveness he once had to find space after breaking the whole and that is what should concern fantasy owners.
Still need convincing? One game that stands out in the 2011 season was against the Colts in week eight where Johnson clearly had difficulty against the 31st ranked defense in the NFL. Johnson struggled with 14 attempts and only 34 yards rushing; however Johnson’s backup Javon Ringer had 14 attempts and 60 yards rushing.
Strategy- While everyone is buying Johnson as the 6th overall pick in the 2012 fantasy football draft I am not as convinced as others. If Johnson was available in round two I would still not draft him.
This isn’t what I believe as much as what I can prove and the proof in my opinion is the history of runningbacks who are burnt early their careers and take sudden turns for the worse. Also it doesn’t help when the Titans are playing the most difficult schedule against the run in the NFL 2012 season.
Now with that said there is also a history of runningbacks who also bounce back after bad seasons; however a handful have the millage that Johnson has had early in his career.
If you draft him with a first round pick you are passing on a player who has better value then Johnson.
Essentially what I am saying is Johnson is a third round pick that is being sold as a first and nobody seems to be questioning why he had such a drop in performance last season. I have been burned to many times to assume a player will just bounce back.
ADP 14th overall and goes as late as the 14th pick overall and as early as the 6th pick overall. Stock Watch up and down.
While most would have you believe that Adrian Peterson will start week one I think that is very unrealistic. The Vikings will most likely have to place Peterson on the PUP list if the medical staff does not clear him. Rather than rush him back and have him reinjure his torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus or put him at risk for a career ending injury.
Medical science can only perform so many miracles and luckily the first injury tends to be the easiest to repair. However if a player is reinjured the health risk only become more significant and Peterson is too great an investment for the Vikings.
I personally think Peterson could be as healthy as he was before the injury and since he has made such significant progress. Peterson’s rehab has been ahead of schedule and there were no complications after his surgery.
However if he is placed on the preseason PUP list which is all but certain Peterson will sit out all training camp but can be moved easily to the 53 man regular season roster it he doesn’t practice. On the other hand if the Vikings are not convinced Peterson is ready to make contact then he will likely remain on the regular season PUP list. That means Peterson will not be able to practice until after week six.
So how effective is he if he sits on your bench for the first half of the season?
I would compare this to how fantasy football owners were burned by taking a gamble on Peyton Manning last season. The difference here is we don’t have a lockout which made it almost impossible to see Manning’s season long sit on the PUP list.
Strategy- Peterson will have value in closing rounds of fantasy football drafts and he will see action in the 2012 season. The problem is you need a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen.
Worst case scenario is Peterson sits on the regular season PUP list then his overall value is not a 1st, 2nd, or even a 10th round pick. If you want to draft Peterson in the 11th round by all means I am with you I think he has great value in the late rounds and returns in time for the end of the season as well as the playoffs.
Best case scenario is he is on the preseason PUP list and is activated at the end of training camp to begin contact drills. The big problem here is contact. If a Peterson is running in circles that is a good sign his knee is strengthening but contact says the knee can sustain a hit and is at normal physical risk.
If Peterson is engaging in contact drills then I see him being a 4th round pick and should begin play week three or four.
The best plan is to keep a close eye on what the team’s medical staff clears him to do and when. Just keep in mind his value is only as good as the amount of touches he receives and backup Tobey Gerhart showed promise last season.
ADP 27th overall and goes as early as the 2nd round and as late as the 3rd round. Stock Watch rising.
I know what you’re saying. Green has lots of upside. Green established himself as a rookie with a rookie QB. He had ten catches and 124 yards in just week two against the Denver Broncos in Denver!
Ok I hear you loud and clear but that is no reason for everyone to pass on the Patriots Wes Welker, the Bears Brandon Marshall, and the Falcons Roddy White to take a second year receiver.
Those other players are veterans who besides Marshall out performed Green in the 2011 NFL season. Marshall by the way is playing one of the easiest defensive schedule against receivers. Green and the Bengals on the other hand are playing the most difficult schedule for receivers against receiving defenses.
The Bengals play a very difficult schedule in the second half of the 2012 NFL season especially during the fantasy playoffs. In weeks fourteen through sixteen the Bengals play Dallas’s very improved secondary then go to Philadelphia to play the Eagles who may have the best overall secondary in the NFL and then during the fantasy championship play the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
I honestly think the expectations for Green are way too high against that brutal schedule.
Strategy- Green has huge potential however his stock is more inflated then facebook’s IPO so I would let others pay to way too much for him. Green’s value is 5th round overall against a very difficult schedule that will limit his overall production but just look at some other players available who will come as steal compared to Green.
ADP 42nd Overall and goes as early as 2nd round and as late as the 6th round. Stock Watch steady.
Last season a “talented fantasy writer” from Bristol Connecticut who shall remain nameless wrote a draft manifesto that insisted that Michael Vick should be the number one overall pick in fantasy football drafts.
Now I imagine some of you don’t recognize who this writer is and if that is the case then thank your lucky stars you didn’t read that manifesto. However I am sure some of you read this manifesto and thought the same thoughts that crossed my mind.
How is this guy a fantasy football expert? Did he wash Chris Berman’s car or something?
To draft Vick in round six last season was reaching as it still is this season.
You see this writer who shall remain nameless had a theory that if Vick could just stay healthy he would have more attempts to score. Thus if Vick could be a top ten QB while playing just twelve games he would be a lock if he played sixteen.
However here is the problem! Vick has only played one full healthy season. Since his return to the NFL he has played 12 games in 2009, 12 in 2010, and 13 in the 2011 season.
Yet every season the debate is made that Michael Vick is somehow going to turn it on?
I want you to look at one number last season. Literally one number and that is 1 rushing touchdown. If that isn’t the sign of a slowdown out of guy who is known for being a rushing threat I don’t know what is. Vick is entering his tenth full season in the NFL and the toll is beginning to show.
Strategy- Drafting Vick is risky regardless of what round he is available but if he slips to the 8th round then he is worthy of the risk. Why? You most likely will have selected two runningbacks, two starting receivers, a starting tight end, and two backups and Vick will just be a support a strong core. However your next pick will have to be a quarterback and RG3 or Andrew Luck will probably be available.
If you’re going to take risk at least take it on a younger player who has a higher ceiling.