Lately every time I read a fantasy football post it is nothing more then a review of last years stats. Some of us are sick hearing about last year’s NFL stats.
I want to know what is going on now in the NFL and how it will affect my choices on draft day.
Will the Jaguars become a pass oriented offense with Maurice Jones Drew holding out even though new head coach Mike Mularkey was run heavy with Falcons RB Michael Turner? Will the Green Bay Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers arm less often now that Joe Philbin is coaching the Dolphins? Are the San Francisco 49ers on the verge of having another explosive offense?
However fantasy “experts” aren’t very good at breaking down game plans, schemes, and player technique. Nor should you rely on them for that assessment since most rely on their fantasy imagination. They simply don’t have that kind of insight to what happens in the game of NFL football.
While most beat writers have vast knowledge on what a NFL team is doing some are not a good source for the more detailed information that only players and coaches can provide.
Hub Arkush has been the publisher, editor, and journalist of Pro Football Weekly for over 30 years, was a color man for the Chicago Bears radio broadcast, and has been the sideline reporter for DialGlobal Sports Radio (formerly West Wood One Radio) for over three seasons including covering the Super Bowl XLVI.
One of the reasons I subscribe to Pro Football Weekly is that Publisher Hub Arkush who is the closest a reporter can come to a coach/player is never ashamed to admit that coaches and players are the overall professional opinion.
With that said it doesn’t mean that coaches and players are always right either.
When seeking advice fantasy enthusiast need to listen to coaches and former players who understand what they are saying when it comes to breaking down more difficult observations.
Now you may be saying; ‘What does that have to do with fantasy football’? The answer is everything!
Consider the possibilities of the current situation in New York with Giants corner-back Terrell Thomas’s injury.
- How is this going to affect the NYG defense and could this cause more shootouts at QB? Could this drive the Giants to have another pass heavy year making Eli Manning a better option at QB over some others?
- How will this affect Dallas QB Tony Romo, Philladelphia QB Michael Vick, and Washington rookie QB RGIII? Will this drive them to be pass heavy against the Giants since they play each other six times.
- Will all the passing drop the value of Giants running-backs Bradshaw and Wilson?
- Or will last year’s first round draft pick Prince Amukamara finally step up and play like a shutdown corner?
I don’t know what the answer is but when you follow nothing but last season stats instead of current news you begin to get lost in silly details instead of watching the game. You miss these more serious details and fail to realize what is really going on.
Did you see the movie “Money Ball” and believe sabermetrics is the solution to all the world’s problems? Well keep this in mind. Peter Brand is a fictional character based on several people including Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane is no Brad Pitt. It’s a MOVIE!
Basically while the story is revisionist history in the sense that the A’s won on the cheap the majority of the story is BS.
So is using strictly stats to assemble a fantasy football team instead of being more diverse in whom you take advice from.
Fantasy football is about planning on a week to week need that is loaded with intangibles that cannot be solved with math formulas and analytical analysis. Fantasy football requires a subjective and narrow-minded opinion that is beyond calculations, algorithms, and theorems.
The difference between baseball managers and football coaches is simple.
Baseball is all about knowing the match ups.
For example can my lefty starting pitcher (era 4.0) match up against the five lefty batters in the opposing team’s lineup. The baseball manager thinks it may be time to start my right handed ace pitcher (era 0.9) that may struggle with lefties yet can mow down the four right handed batters.
Football is about the game plan. A football coach will never abandon the running game even when facing the best run defense. Football coaches simply adjust the game plan by finding which side of the defense is weaker and attack that side. When the defense has made an adjustment then run a counter play to throw the defense off.
You see football coaches are all about organization. From the depth chart, to coaching staff, and the way the team approaches the game plan. It is all about organization.
Fantasy Football GM’s/coaches also has to be organized. We have to pay attention to the current news rather than get lost in the details of last season’s stats.
The best fantasy football teams are not made on draft day rather they are made during the season when changes need to be made on a week to week basis. However we don’t divert form our draft day game plan instead we study the game and find diamonds in the rough.
Don’t let the fantasy stat geeks tell you that your insight to NFL football and even Pop Warner is useless. While they can probably tell you who the leading receiver was in games that were played in domes as opposed to outdoors and other useless statistical observation. Ask them to recognize formations, coverage, and simply identifying what is going on the field of play without playing John Madden football and they will struggle.
That is the problem when you’re submerged in fantasy football stats you don’t watch the game in front of you insteasd you watch numbers.