ProFootballWeekly.com has some waiver additions for your team!
First let me apologize for the lack of a podcast this week or the lack of links at the beginning of the week. Unfortunately my children were home all week, I found out my neighbors house may have been involved in criminal activity, and I was sick.
On top of all that my Chicago BEARS Sucked on Thursday Night Football!!!
Like everyone else you drop everything and deal with what really matters.
While I am grateful for all of you who take the time to surf my blog I want you to know this was simply a miserable week.
I intend to be much more productive on the blog this week!
Enough of my problems on to my predictions.
D.O.A last week I was DEAD ON ACCURATE in this category!
Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback Michael Vick vs. The Baltimore Ravens Defense
Vick has looked awful in pre-season and now after his first regular season game nothing has changed.
Think about this he had 2 touchdowns and 317 yards against a good Browns secondary but with 56 ATTEMPTS! Not to mention he tossed four picks and fumbled twice!
Do you think the Ravens will let Vick off the hook?
What really concerns me is that Vick is his not being able to pick yards up with his feet anymore.
Last week Vick escaped the pocket seven times, and one was a 16 yard sprint, but his total yards rushing on 7 attempts were 32 yards. So in the end Vick breaks one for 16 yards and his other 6 attempts rushing are an average of 2.6 yards a carry.
Face it his arm is very inaccurate and his feet cannot make the plays. Now it’s just a matter of time before Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be forced to bench Vick.
Others who you may want to consider benching.
Titans Running-back Chris Johnson vs. The San Diego Chargers Defense
While this may backfire on me I don’t think this is a reach either. ProFootballWeekly analyst Nolan Nawrocki has noted Johnson may not be suited to do what he is being asked because the personnel on Titans O line are not fitting the offensive scheme.
Jaguars Running-back Maurice Jones Drew vs. The Houston Texans Defense
Another prediction that could blow up in my face but MJD is a risky start. Why? It’s very clear that the Vikings had not game planned on seeing MJD last Sunday however they were also struggling with the Jaguars passing game.
Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert is the reason why MJD was able to bust open so many runs. However the Texans will not struggle with Gabbert and MJD will be stuffed by eight men in the box.
Titans Wide-receiver Kenny Britt vs. The San Diego Chargers Defense
Two things I don’t trust. One is Jake Locker! The other is Kenny’s knee.
Baltimore Ravens Wide-receiver Torrey Smith vs. The Philadelphia Eagles Defense
When you face a shutdown corner you are doomed to have a bad day.
WARM Fairly accurate last week.
Vikings Quarterback Christian Ponder vs. The Indianapolis Defense
While Ponder did not pass any touchdowns last week the Colts will plan on seeing running-back Adrian Peterson who despite coming off of an ACL injury had an impressive week one.
One of the reasons why AP was so impressive and why Ponder should have a fairly good week 2 is because of the impressive play of the Vikings offensive line.
While Ponder is not going to have a huge day he is good for two touchdowns and over 240 yards passing against the leagues weakest defense.
Atlanta Falcons Wide-receiver Julio Jones vs. The Denver Broncos Defense
Since spring I kept saying keep a close eye on what is going on in Atlanta and Falcons Matt Ryan and Julio Jones delivered a huge week one. I just don’t see how Denver Broncos head coach John Fox will be able to contain Jones completely in week two but he should be able to slow him down.
New York Jets Running-back Shonn Greene vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
While Greene will struggle to find the endzone it’s hard to ignore just how many carries he is receiving.
New York Giants Running-back David Wilson vs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense
If you were one of the foolish ones to drop this kid it is going to come back to bite you! That also means if he is available on waivers and you have Pittsburgh’s train wreck of rushers I would consider replacing them with Wilson.
Wilson needs to get his confidence back and the Tampa defense is a great confidence booster!
Atlanta Running-back Jacquizz Rodgers vs. The Denver Broncos Defense
What happens when you’re starting running-back is not fitting into your offensive scheme your much faster backup running back receives more attempts.
HOT My pick of De Angelo Williams last week was a complete bust!
Kansas City Chief Quarterback Matt Cassel vs. The Buffalo Bills Defense
If the Bills struggled with the Jets then they are doomed against the Chiefs! Cassel has weapons such as Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Dexter McCluster. What the Bills defense has is lots of young and veteran talent that for some reason or another can’t put it together.
What stands out in this game is how both of these teams have the potential for a shootout at QB. This also brings up the argument that my QB pick could have just as easily had been Ryan Fitzpatrick however KC can stop the run and Cassel will not be forced to throw every down.
I like Cassel this week he has an opportunity to show off his talent by using players like McCluster to confuse the Buffalo Bills defense.
Indianapolis Running-back Donald Brown vs. The Minnesota Vikings Defense
With 9 attempts he ran 48 yards and a rushing TD the only reason his attempts were so low was because the Colts fell so quickly behind the Bears.
Cleveland Browns Running-back Trent Richardson vs. The Cincinnati Bengals Defense
This is the type of game that will put the third overall pick on the map as a NFL star even if Richardson will see a lot of eight men fronts as he did in college.
New England Tight-end Rob Gronkowski vs. The Arizona Cardinals Defense
I don’t care what anyone says Brandon Lloyd is not replacing Wes Welker and Gronk is still Brady’s first option in the endzone.
Minnesota Vikings Wide-receiver Percy Harvin vs. The Indianapolis Defense
Percy Harvin is going to put up great numbers today because Ponder will have all day to throw!
Good Luck Today as always I will be on twitter if you are looking for Fantasy Football advice!
They added new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and instead of going with the usual ground and pound with running-back Michael Turner the play book is now all about airing it out.
Koetter has his imprint on this Falcons team as Matt Ryan drove down field 80 yards and threw a seven yard touchdown pass to receiver Julio Jones. The second touchdown in the game came from running-back Jacquizz Rodgers who ran between the tackles for a goal line carry.
While most including myself thought that Rodgers would be used as strictly a change of pace back I have to believe Koetter is going to have Turner and Rodgers sharing the work load. However I still expect to see the majority of goal line carries go to Turner.
While Julio Jones was used heavily veteran receiver Roddy White still had his fare share of receptions catching three passes for 46 yards.
The only problem with taking Ryan, Jones, and even Rodgers is that the cat is out the bag and I expect to see their value only increase.
Lately every time I read a fantasy football post it is nothing more then a review of last years stats. Some of us are sick hearing about last year’s NFL stats.
I want to know what is going on now in the NFL and how it will affect my choices on draft day.
Will the Jaguars become a pass oriented offense with Maurice Jones Drew holding out even though new head coach Mike Mularkey was run heavy with Falcons RB Michael Turner? Will the Green Bay Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers arm less often now that Joe Philbin is coaching the Dolphins? Are the San Francisco 49ers on the verge of having another explosive offense?
However fantasy “experts” aren’t very good at breaking down game plans, schemes, and player technique. Nor should you rely on them for that assessment since most rely on their fantasy imagination. They simply don’t have that kind of insight to what happens in the game of NFL football.
While most beat writers have vast knowledge on what a NFL team is doing some are not a good source for the more detailed information that only players and coaches can provide.
Hub Arkush has been the publisher, editor, and journalist of Pro Football Weekly for over 30 years, was a color man for the Chicago Bears radio broadcast, and has been the sideline reporter for DialGlobal Sports Radio (formerly West Wood One Radio) for over three seasons including covering the Super Bowl XLVI.
One of the reasons I subscribe to Pro Football Weekly is that Publisher Hub Arkush who is the closest a reporter can come to a coach/player is never ashamed to admit that coaches and players are the overall professional opinion.
With that said it doesn’t mean that coaches and players are always right either.
When seeking advice fantasy enthusiast need to listen to coaches and former players who understand what they are saying when it comes to breaking down more difficult observations.
Now you may be saying; ‘What does that have to do with fantasy football’? The answer is everything!
Consider the possibilities of the current situation in New York with Giants corner-back Terrell Thomas’s injury.
I don’t know what the answer is but when you follow nothing but last season stats instead of current news you begin to get lost in silly details instead of watching the game. You miss these more serious details and fail to realize what is really going on.
Did you see the movie “Money Ball” and believe sabermetrics is the solution to all the world’s problems? Well keep this in mind. Peter Brand is a fictional character based on several people including Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane is no Brad Pitt. It’s a MOVIE!
Basically while the story is revisionist history in the sense that the A’s won on the cheap the majority of the story is BS.
So is using strictly stats to assemble a fantasy football team instead of being more diverse in whom you take advice from.
Fantasy football is about planning on a week to week need that is loaded with intangibles that cannot be solved with math formulas and analytical analysis. Fantasy football requires a subjective and narrow-minded opinion that is beyond calculations, algorithms, and theorems.
The difference between baseball managers and football coaches is simple.
Baseball is all about knowing the match ups.
For example can my lefty starting pitcher (era 4.0) match up against the five lefty batters in the opposing team’s lineup. The baseball manager thinks it may be time to start my right handed ace pitcher (era 0.9) that may struggle with lefties yet can mow down the four right handed batters.
Football is about the game plan. A football coach will never abandon the running game even when facing the best run defense. Football coaches simply adjust the game plan by finding which side of the defense is weaker and attack that side. When the defense has made an adjustment then run a counter play to throw the defense off.
You see football coaches are all about organization. From the depth chart, to coaching staff, and the way the team approaches the game plan. It is all about organization.
Fantasy Football GM’s/coaches also has to be organized. We have to pay attention to the current news rather than get lost in the details of last season’s stats.
The best fantasy football teams are not made on draft day rather they are made during the season when changes need to be made on a week to week basis. However we don’t divert form our draft day game plan instead we study the game and find diamonds in the rough.
Don’t let the fantasy stat geeks tell you that your insight to NFL football and even Pop Warner is useless. While they can probably tell you who the leading receiver was in games that were played in domes as opposed to outdoors and other useless statistical observation. Ask them to recognize formations, coverage, and simply identifying what is going on the field of play without playing John Madden football and they will struggle.
That is the problem when you’re submerged in fantasy football stats you don’t watch the game in front of you insteasd you watch numbers.
PFW staff open the discussion with the Atlanta Falcons and can LT Sam Baker rebound from a down year or will the Falcons need to insert 2012 draft pick Lamar Holmes.
As always lots of inside NFL news.
The FF Informer Podcast “What to expect from Atlanta RB Michael Turner”
Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner has had over 300 carries in 3 of his last 4 season as well turning the age of 30 this past February. While Turner spent four years as the backup to future hall of famer LT in SD his mileage and age are adding a new and negative dimension to his overall fantasy value.
Take into consideration this observation from last season that Turner is starting to slowdown.
First I have to make the argument for why Turner’s age and millage are an overall factor in his slowdown.
Lucky for me DavidGonos.com makes the argument for me.
Average Stats Before RB Dropoff
Total Carries – 2,069
Yearly Carries – 288
Yearly Yards – 1,274
Age – 29
Tuner meets three of these factors! So start thinking of great RB such as Sean Alexander, Priest Holmes, and Larry Johnson.
AtalantaFalcons.com is the best source for finding the latest news on the Atlanta Falcons but why should I be following the Falcons you say?
The Falcons could be building an explosive offense but with the good could comes the bad for fantasy football GM’s. I have detailed ten reasons why you should keep a close eye on the dirty birds.
First if you are going to follow the Falcons look no further than to beat writer Daniel Cox the official writer for the Falcons webpage AtlantaFalcons.com.
Cox does what every good beat writer always does, he writes about everything that is going on with the Atlanta Falcons from kick returners to coaching staff. Cox covers it all.
Now to the ten reason why fantasy football fans should follow the Atlanta Falcons this summer!
By Cris Benson
While most of us are watching the NBA Finals, NHL Stanley Cup Finals (congrats Kings fans), and even some MLB a crazy few of us fantasy football junkies are looking for an advantage come August and September for the 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Season.
Right now your fantasy football junkie friends are mock drafting and planning in detail for the upcoming 2012 fantasy football draft. By the end of this June the Fantasy Football magazines are hitting the shelf and some are already on the shelf now and the junkies already bought one. Yet all their planning will not give them any advantage.
Why? Because The FF Informer Blog is all about the slackers who don’t have the time to go researching every fantasy football stat, fantasy football article, and news update that will have little or no impact on your fantasy football draft. The word slacker is really not appropriate but let’s just says you have lives and not a lot of time to waste on fantasy football detailed research. Besides do the junkies really have an advantage?
I think junkies read way too much into all these offseason moves especially mini camps that reveal very little or nothing. So keep enjoying your fantasy baseball, enjoy real sports like the NBA, NHL, and MLB. Rest easy slackers The FF Informer will provide links to articles, twitter news feed that follows all the best NFL insiders and fantasy experts, draft tools, my own articles and updates, videos, podcast, my own short 10 minute fantasy football podcast, and all the free info to help you plan for the upcoming 2012 fantasy football draft.
So now that my sales pitch is over let’s get to what matters and that is the current fantasy football mock drafts that are going on right now.
The great thing about mock drafts is they reveal what most people think a fantasy players ADP (Average Draft Position) is. Why is that important? Well this gives you insight to who is going to be taken too high in the draft and who will be taken to low in the draft. Now let’s focus on the fifteen impact players who are undervalued in this year’s fantasy football mock drafts.
I will be taking my information on the ADP from a trusted site called Fantasy Football Calculator and please stop and try their easy and fast fantasy football mock drafts. The drafts (several hundred already) I am reviewing are the 12 teams and the scoring is standard. The results of every draft are compiled and added to a data base that is a tabulation of information.
First let me begin with a runningback who is clearly undervalued.
ADP 28 overall and goes as late as the 4th round in some drafts. Stock Watch up and down.
Michael Turner is done! Yes done! That is exactly what most fantasy football experts claimed last season and then Turner went on to become the third best rusher in the NFL. It appears we are having a repeat of bad advice this year as RB’s Fred Jackson (broken leg), Adrian Peterson (torn ACL and MCL), Jamal Charles (torn ACL), Matt Forte (sprained MCL), who all sustained significant injuries are all being drafted ahead of Turner who is labeled an old man at thirty. That is crazy.
First Turner a nine year veteran who started his career behind NFL legend Ladainian Tomlinson saw no more than 228 carries in those four years in San Diego before joining the Atlanta Falcons. So why do junkies treat him as if his wheels are going to all the sudden come off?
Last year we saw the injury plague attack young players just as much as older players. We have no reasons for biased when a rusher is receiving over 300 attempts in three years and manages to stay healthy. Turner also plays through injuries such as the groin injury he suffered late last season yet still manage to produce rather than sit.
Strategy- The word is the Falcons want to go to a heavier passing attack which could bring Turners carries down under 300 but if he carries the ball over 200 times I believe his goal line value alone will still be worth more than his current value in mock drafts.
Turner has great return value in the third round but there is no shame in taking him in the 2nd round.
ADP 38.0 overall and goes between the early 3rd and 5th rounds. Stock Watch slipping.
If Michael Turner is too old Jordy Nelson is not recognized as his QB Aaron Rodgers favorite option. While Greg Jennings was injured last season Nelson stepped in and produced out gaining his teammates and winning over his head coach.
Nelson has a huge catching radius and with an impressive 18.57 yards after the catch!
However the junkies can’t seem to get passed WR Greg Jennings and TE Jermichael Finley.
McCarthy rewards his players for production with more touches of the football and it is clear Nelson won over McCarthy.
Strategy- Take Nelson as a number one receiver after drafting Aaron Rodgers with your first overall pick in the late 1st round this will be a scoring duo! The draft will have valuable RB’s in the 2nd round then snag Nelson in the third while everyone wonders what just happened you will be sailing to the fantasy finals. If possible you could wait to the 4th round and grab two great backs but Nelson will be less likely to be available.
ADP 51.8 overall and goes the early 4th round and early 6th round. Stock Watch rising.
This is one of those players that we have to take as a casualty of the NFL CBA lockout. Jackson was looking for a long term deal last season which he now has but at a time when the rules changed in the CBA. Jackson allowed that long term deal to become distraction on the field and while Jackson struggled his talent is something we cannot ignore.
Jackson has a talent that is beyond just being a receiver from stretching the field and fighting off double coverage to catching a ball in the flat and making moves like a runningback. Look for Jackson to be the teams go to receiver again. Whatever you do don’t buy into the suggestion that WR Jeremy Maclin is now the go to receiver on this Eagles team. Maclin is a capable receiver himself but Jackson is a special receiver. Maclin didn’t produce great numbers when needed late last season and is simply not as talented as Jackson.
Strategy- Jackson’s overall value has slipped but not for long especially if the Eagles uses him heavily in the preseason. Look for most to draft Jackson in the 5th round I just don’t see him being available in the 6th unless he is dropping passes in the preseason but I seriously doubt that. Taking Jackson in the 4th round is less risky then fantasy GM’s think. Jackson’s true dilemma is Michael Vick not DeSean Jackson but I believe the Eagles made an investment in Jackon (5 years 51million dollars) instead of letting him walk and the Eagles are seeking a large return.
ADP 78.8 overall and goes as early in the 5th but as late as the 9th round. Stock Watch erratic.
Did some people not watch Matt Ryan last year? He was a top eight overall scoring leader in most leagues at QB much less a top 12 in the entire league in scoring. For some reason though people consider Ryan a second tier QB but the question is why? Is there something I am missing here? Did Ryan not have targets that could catch the ball? Did he not have a running game to back him up?
The questions of why almost always leads us back to the Atlanta Falcons offensive line which gave up 26 sacks making some wonder if Ryan was heading for a serious injury.
Ryan has only expressed his confidence with the offensive line this offseason, “…I like the guys we have up front. They play hard. They play physical.” ProFootballWeekly
Consider this Ryan has outperformed others who are being drafted ahead of him in mock drafts including PHI QB Michael Vick and SD QB Phillip Rivers. In CBSsports ADP they have HOU QB Matt Schaub ahead of Ryan. The only reasonable argument is taking DEN QB Peyton Manning ahead of Ryan however I don’t agree with that either based on team schedules.
The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest passing schedule overall with an abundance of indoor games in November and December setting Ryan up for a very good season. In addition the coaching staff is committed to passing the ball this season last year the ratio was 58% pass and 42% run it appears that pass ratio could grow to greater than 60% pass in 2012.
Strategy- While some are smart enough to grab Ryan early most are willing to take him later in the draft that leaves you time to grab top tier picks at other positions and lock up a seriously good fantasy QB in the seventh round. While you could take a gamble and wait longer I would say playing the middle ground (between rounds 5-9) is the safest place. Also look to pickup either ATL wide receivers Roddy White or Julio Jones both are being selected in the second too third rounds. You won’t need both just one for a scoring combo that will double you some points on game day.
While the most drafts are not until late August or early September it never hurts to keep a close eye on those trends in fantasy football. Keep an eye on my blog as I hope to have another podcast up soon and look for more links and articles from The FF Informer blog.