Will Carroll explains why the Packers may have to change the game plan around Aaron Rodgers injury.

SI.com It’s seems like everyone is injured at this time of year but knowing whose serious and whose playing hurt can make the difference of a bench or start on your fantasy football roster.

Fantasy Football is About Watching NFL Games Not Stats!

Lately every time I read a fantasy football post it is nothing more then a review of last years stats. Some of us are sick hearing about last year’s NFL stats.

I want to know what is going on now in the NFL and how it will affect my choices on draft day. 

Will the Jaguars become a pass oriented offense with Maurice Jones How is MJD's hold out going to change the look of the Jags offense is something stats cannot reveal.Drew holding out even though new head coach Mike Mularkey was run heavy with Falcons RB Michael Turner? Will the Green Bay Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers arm less often now that Joe Philbin is coaching the Dolphins? Are the San Francisco 49ers on the verge of having another explosive offense?  

However fantasy “experts” aren’t very good at breaking down game plans, schemes, and player technique. Nor should you rely on them for that assessment since most rely on their fantasy imagination. They simply don’t have that kind of insight to what happens in the game of NFL football.

While most beat writers have vast knowledge on what a NFL team is doing some are not a good source for the more detailed information that only players and coaches can provide.

Hub Arkush has been the publisher, editor, and journalist of Pro Football Weekly for over 30 years, was a color man for the Chicago Bears radio broadcast, and has been the sideline reporter for DialGlobal Sports Radio (formerly West Wood One Radio) for over three seasons including covering the Super Bowl XLVI.

One of the reasons I subscribe to Pro Football Weekly is that Publisher Hub Arkush who is the closest a reporter can come to a coach/player is never ashamed to admit that coaches and players are the overall professional opinion.  

With that said it doesn’t mean that coaches and players are always right either.

When seeking advice fantasy enthusiast need to listen to coaches and former players who understand what they are saying when it comes to breaking down more difficult observations.

Now you may be saying; ‘What does that have to do with fantasy football’? The answer is everything!

Consider the possibilities of the current situation in New York with Giants corner-back Terrell Thomas’s injury.

  • How is this going to affect the NYG defense and could this cause more shootouts at QB? Could this drive the Giants to have another pass heavy year making Eli Manning a better option at QB over some others?
  • How will this affect Dallas QB Tony Romo, Philladelphia QB Michael Vick, and Washington rookie QB RGIII? Will this drive them to be pass heavy against the Giants since they play each other six times.
  • Will all the passing drop the value of Giants running-backs Bradshaw and Wilson?
  • Or will last year’s first round draft pick Prince Amukamara finally step up and play like a shutdown corner?

I don’t know what the answer is but when you follow nothing but last season stats instead of current news you begin to get lost in silly details instead of watching the game. You miss these more serious details and fail to realize what is really going on.

Fantasy football is not rotisserie baseball that is based on sabermetrics and encourages you to make decisions based on nothing but previous stats.

Did you see the movie “Money Ball” and believe sabermetrics is the solution to all the world’s problems? Well keep this in mind. Peter Brand is a fictional character based on several people including Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane is no Brad Pitt. It’s a MOVIE!

Basically while the story is revisionist history in the sense that the A’s won on the cheap the majority of the story is BS.

So is using strictly stats to assemble a fantasy football team instead of being more diverse in whom you take advice from.  

Fantasy football is about planning on a week to week need that is loaded with intangibles that cannot be solved with math formulas and analytical analysis. Fantasy football requires a subjective and narrow-minded opinion that is beyond calculations, algorithms, and theorems.

The difference between baseball managers and football coaches is simple.

Baseball is all about knowing the match ups.

For example can my lefty starting pitcher (era 4.0) match up against the five lefty batters in the opposing team’s lineup. The baseball manager thinks it may be time to start my right handed ace pitcher (era 0.9) that may struggle with lefties yet can mow down the four right handed batters. 

Football is about the game plan. A football coach will never abandon the running game even when facing the best run defense. Football coaches simply adjust the game plan by finding which side of the defense is weaker and attack that side. When the defense has made an adjustment then run a counter play to throw the defense off.

You see football coaches are all about organization. From the depth chart, to coaching staff, and the way the team approaches the game plan. It is all about organization.

Fantasy Football GM’s/coaches also has to be organized. We have to pay attention to the current news rather than get lost in the details of last season’s stats.

The best fantasy football teams are not made on draft day rather they are made during the season when changes need to be made on a week to week basis. However we don’t divert form our draft day game plan instead we study the game and find diamonds in the rough.

Don’t let the fantasy stat geeks tell you that your insight to NFL football and even Pop Warner is useless. While they can probably tell you who the leading receiver was in games that were played in domes as opposed to outdoors and other useless statistical observation. Ask them to recognize formations, coverage, and simply identifying what is going on the field of play without playing John Madden football and they will struggle.

That is the problem when you’re submerged in fantasy football stats you don’t watch the game in front of you insteasd you watch numbers.

(Source: thefantasyfootballinformer)

Top Fantasy Performers Week 4: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

NFL.com Aaron Rodgers just continues to produce for fantasy owners scoring on 4 passing TD’s and then rushing for 2 TD’s!  He also had 408 yards passing on Sunday!

A 134.5 QB passing rating!  That is incredible!

(Source: nfl.com)

Cardinals vs Packers

NFL Pre-Season Week 2 Arizona vs Green Bay 

COLD:  Arizona RB Beanie Wells had 11 carries for 44 yards so your asking, ‘why was he cold?’  Look at the play by play and you will see.  Wells carried the ball for repeated 2 yard gains and occasionally broke large runs not being able sustain his drives.

The problem I have with this is it shows Wells is inconsistent not making the most of all his carries. 

Since his rookie season Wells has not become the RB Arizona drafted and entering his third season I don’t expect him to change now.

Wells should only be considered a desperate 2nd and a more preferred 3rd option in fantasy.

HOT:  The Packers offense was HOT!  Aaron Rodgers continues to throw darts at receivers hitting them in the numbers with ease.  RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley played well making the most of their opportunities.  As well as receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver the GB offense is not even warmed up yet.  Now that is scary…

SLEEPER:  ARZ rookie RB Ryan Williams who was competing with Wells for the starting position was injured last night leaving an opening for a backup RB.

No one is going to stand out in ARZ at RB so I suspect their is going to be a free agent signing soon.  Remember the Cardinals had (key word HAD) a crowded back field and traded RB Tim Hightower to the Redskins now they will need to bring in another RB.  Keep a close watch on who they bring in because they will have possible sleeper potential. 

Click the link for the stats by ESPN.  Video by NFL.com.

Packers vs Browns

NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Greenbay vs Clevland

As impressive as Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was passing the ball like the Super Bowl was yesterday rather than 6 months ago.  His opponent Browns QB Colt McCoy matched him pass for pass.

McCoy hit a 27 yard laser to WR Josh Cribbs with a flick of his wrist.  He looked poised, he looked ready, and he looked confident.  I strongly feel this boost McCoy’s fantasy draft status among QB’s.

Another Browns player and Madden NFL 12 cover vote finalist RB Peyton Hillis ran a 3 yard TD.  Hillis may have much more attempts if McCoy can continue playing well.

Just a note on some Packers who ended their season early last year due to injury.  RB Ryan Grant had 3 attempts for 13 yards and catching a pass for 5 yards. TE noticeably not involved was TE Jemichael Finley who not listed as injured?