I believe that fantasy football is a simple equation
Draft Knowledge + Regular Season Transaction = Making the playoffs and winning a Championships!
This Equation is missing something and that is Dumb Luck! Yes it is true luck plays a role in this game just like the lottery winner who plays one ticket and wins. But if you take the left side of the equation and do the work you increase your odds of winning. Think of it this way, who is more likely to win the lottery if only 12 people play? The first person who buys one ticket or the twelfth who buys twelve tickets? Well like simple odds the twelfth person has increased their odds of winning twelve times greater than the first person, but the sixth person still could win even though they bought only six tickets. Dumb luck still plays a role but the odds of the first person winning are next to nothing a matter of fact the odds are more likely they come in dead last. Do you want to be last? Of course not so read this and get ready for the draft.
Now to increase our odds lets reveal the 1st Fantasy Football Mistake!
1) “My magazine is for draft day and that is when I use it”, you deserve to lose if you do this! First all magazines are full of information from May and June and your draft is most likely in August and September a lot changes in two or three months, so do not be that guy. However the person with three month old information has better odds than the person with last year’s information. You have to reach beyond your magazine to gain an advantage and use online tools such as the tools provided in our links. Online tools can prep you for the draft and help you predict schedule trends for key positions!
2) “My strategy is to draft my starting lineup in the beginning of the draft”, I hate this, and I hate seeing picks being wasted on locking up a power house starting lineup. This is a very dumb strategy because, for one the NFL has bye weeks and even starters have to sit on your bench, two you miss out on bench depth and trade depth by throwing away your 7th or 8th round pick on a kicker!
Here is the best strategy I have found and it works, lock up wide receivers and running backs with the first six picks of the draft. After those six are locked worry about the rest of your starters even the quarterback, who by the way is a rook at best on this chess board of fantasy football. You need running back’s they are the queen’s on this chess board capable of scoring in more ways then one, your wide receivers are always going to catch not run where a runningback can do both. The reason why a quarterback is not as valuable is that unless you lock a top five quarterback the range of scoring from least to worst quarterback is not as significant as the range for the wide receiver or running back positions. In most leagues we play two running backs, two wide receivers, and one quarterback, how many runningbacks start in the NFL? Only thirty two and what position do you think I concentrate on with my first three picks? Yes Running Back because two wide receivers take the field on almost every given offensive play.
Now with that said I have one exception to this rule but only more advanced players should consider this and that is substituting a tight end for a wide receiver with an early pick. But like I said if you have no clue what the value is for a tight end to a receiver in your scoring system just keeps it simple and stick to the top six rule.
Listen I do not care what happens in the draft you are going to only take one defense, and one kicker, “But What About the Bye Week”! NO, listen when the bye week comes for this position you add a kicker and drop your kicker unless your kicker is a top five kicker trust me you will find a kicker on the waiver wire. Let me tell you adding a kicker who kicks indoors or in fair weather in December is a great move. The other thing is the kicker is your last pick in the draft, yes all the good ones are gone but this position is like a quarterback in comparison of range of scoring and all NFL kickers are all very good. Some just kick more than others. Defense is different a great defense can be a 1 point difference in a game and they can turn a bad team into a team that finds a way to win. I recommend locking a defense when the run on them begins in the 9th or 10th round but no earlier than that since other positions have the depth you want. Think of it this way do you need a defense when in week three a starting running back goes down and you have his back up on your bench? Stick to the rules!
3) “Is it ok to fall in love with or hate a guy and never pick him?” Yes and No, the reason is you have to know when value outweighs your feelings, think logical. Now Lourence Maroney is great example if you’re a NE fan you might take him way to early (let’s say the third round) and if you were burned in the past by him you pass on him let’ say the eighth round is still available and you pass on him yet he had a solid year last year. Lourence Maroney has value but everyone seems to not be able gauge his overall value. Think with your head and do not be a homer if a guy from your team is available as Bears for example. Bears fans remember last year you took Jay Cutler early as if he was the second coming of Kurt Warner in St Louis? I know you’re out there!
4) “KNOW YOUR SCORING SYSTEM AND STARTERS!” This can make a huge difference for your team and not everyone has the same amount of starters at a single position, not everyone gets the same amount of points in a system. I will say this the higher the points the less likely you should join that league the lower the points and I mean a TD scoring based league the simpler it is to play as a beginner. A bonus crazy league is no fun when you get points for just touching a ball then why bothers looking for strategy? Complex scoring systems were created for guys who think of ways to make a wheel a better wheel, there is no better wheel just better materials and tools to create the wheel, the wheel is still a round object that serves the purpose of transportation. So once again keep things simple and the bonus points. A kicker only deserves a bonus when he kicks a ball more than fifty yards! Period!
5) “My draft is over I have a championship team now I can sit back and collect my trophy in January” no this is just the beginning! Now comes the hard part you have been dealt cards and everyone know how many aces you have in your hand. What they do not know is you have five guys on the bench that can be potential sleepers and those aces are potential bust after week seven. Know What you GOT and plan ahead research your bye weeks, plan when to add drop, look for trade bait from a guy who scores three touchdown on your bench, by the way how often do you think he is going to do that? Find the guy in your league who knows everything and trade with him because that guy knows nothing but the bad advice he took from his magazine. That guy locks on players and has a master plan to ride them into the fantasy football sunset well let me tell you the guy that grinds out the bad weeks and makes the playoffs tends to be the guys that wins the championship. The guy with the most overall knowledge not just football knowledge is the one who will ride into the sunset. This is a game and if you want to win you have to learn how to play just like football. Good Luck!